New Poll: Democrats Hold Midterm Edge, but Warning Signs Remain

What happened

Democrats head into the final week before the midterm elections with a clear but fragile lead, according to a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Tuesday. Among likely voters, Democrats lead Republicans by 8 points on the generic congressional ballot, the question that asks voters which party's candidate they would back in their own district. Among registered voters, the lead was 10 points.

President Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular in the survey. Just 40% of likely voters approved of his job performance, against 59% who disapproved. Among registered voters the split was 38% approve to 61% disapprove. An equal share of both groups, 53%, said they "strongly disapprove" of Trump, tied for the highest that figure has ever reached in the poll.

The survey also found that cost of living is still the issue voters care about most. A third of respondents said they had experienced financial hardship in the past year, and 4 in 10 said their personal finances had gotten worse. Preserving democracy resonated most with Democrats and independents, while immigration was the top concern for self-described MAGA supporters.

Why it matters

The generic ballot is one of the most watched midterm indicators because it has tracked closely with past wave elections. When Democrats held a similar lead in 2018, they flipped more than 30 House seats and took the majority. In 2006, a 12-point lead produced a similar result. An 8-point edge among likely voters points in the same direction, though it is narrower than the registered-voter figure.

The caution signs sit underneath the headline. This was the first survey this cycle in which Marist applied a likely-voter screen, which tries to identify the people most likely to actually cast a ballot using enthusiasm, voting history, and how important the election is to them. On several questions, likely voters were slightly less Democratic-leaning than registered voters, a reminder that polls measure opinion, not turnout.

The map has also changed since the last big Democratic waves. The survey notes that redistricting after the 2020 Census, plus a rare round of mid-decade redrawing in the last year and a half, has tilted seats in Republicans' direction nationally. That structural edge is one reason a national lead does not automatically translate into the same seat gains it once did. For the longer story of how this election cycle took shape, see [our explainer on the 2026 midterms](/article/us-midterm-elections-2026-explained), and for how the redrawn maps are already reshaping races, see [our coverage of the redistricting fight](/article/redistricting-backfires-gop-safe-seats-costly-toss-ups).

What it means for the US

Control of the House decides which party sets the legislative agenda for the next two years, runs committee investigations, and shapes spending bills. A Democratic majority would give the party a check on the Trump administration's final two years, while a Republican hold would keep the president's agenda moving with fewer obstacles.

The poll also points to what will decide that outcome: not just who voters prefer, but who shows up. Democrats lead on enthusiasm among their own likely voters, 71% of whom said they were "very enthusiastic" about voting, against 61% of Republican likely voters. But several groups Democrats count on lagged behind, including voters under 45, just 42% of whom were very enthusiastic, non-white voters at 53%, and white women with college degrees at 56%. By contrast, MAGA voters registered 68%.

The economy cuts across all of it. With a third of voters reporting recent financial hardship, the party voters blame for prices and household budgets has the most to lose in the final week, whichever way the national numbers lean.

What happens next

Both parties now face the same final task: turning preference into votes. Early voting is already underway in several states, and the poll's enthusiasm gap suggests the ground game in the last seven days matters as much as the advertising. Democrats need their younger and non-white supporters to vote at rates they have not always reached in midterms; Republicans need their voters, who are now following the race as closely as Democrats, to do the same.

Watch the individual Senate and House races where the national mood meets local candidates. The poll found 44% of likely voters said their vote would be mainly against Trump, double the 21% who said it would be mainly for him, a dynamic that tends to help challengers. Races on the edges of the map, like [the Democratic opening in Arkansas](/article/democrats-see-opening-deep-red-arkansas-midterms), will show whether that anti-Trump energy reaches beyond the usual battlegrounds.

One bright spot for both sides: three-quarters of likely voters said they were confident their state and local governments will run a fair and accurate election, including 88% of Democrats, 68% of Republicans, and 75% of independents. Large majorities also said their preferred candidate should accept the result, though a quarter of Republicans said theirs should probably or definitely challenge it.