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Election 2026 · The Big Board

Who is winning the midterms?

Every Senate race on one map — who leads in each state, what control of Congress comes down to, and when the polls close on Tuesday, November 3.

Pre-election outlook

Polls & ratings · Updated October 26, 2026
Election Day in 8 days — results replace this outlook on Nov 3

Senate — race to 51

47DEM if ratings hold45REP

Now: Republicans 53 — Democrats 47. Of the 35 seats up, Republicans defend 22 and Democrats 13. The 8 amber seats are rated Toss-Up and not yet called — they decide control.

House — race to 218

435 seats up

Every House seat is on the ballot. The Cook Political Report rates 46 districts as Toss-Up or Lean — the battlefield is concentrated in California, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Arizona, and most forecasters currently favour Democrats to retake the chamber.

Governors

36 races

The closest: Nevada, where Aaron Ford (D) and Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) are tied at 42% each in the polling average and Cook rates the race a Toss-Up.

Toss-up battlegrounds:
Alabama — Solid RepublicanAlaska — Toss-UpArizona — no Senate race in 2026Colorado — Solid DemocraticFlorida — Likely RepublicanGeorgia — Likely DemocraticIndiana — no Senate race in 2026Kansas — Toss-UpMaine — Toss-UpMassachusetts — Solid DemocraticMinnesota — Lean DemocraticNew Jersey — Solid DemocraticNorth Carolina — Likely DemocraticNorth Dakota — no Senate race in 2026Oklahoma — Solid RepublicanPennsylvania — no Senate race in 2026South Dakota — Solid RepublicanTexas — Toss-UpWyoming — Solid RepublicanConnecticut — no Senate race in 2026Missouri — no Senate race in 2026West Virginia — Solid RepublicanIllinois — Solid DemocraticNew Mexico — Solid DemocraticArkansas — Solid RepublicanCalifornia — no Senate race in 2026Delaware — Solid DemocraticDistrict of Columbia — no Senate race in 2026Hawaii — no Senate race in 2026Iowa — Toss-UpKentucky — Likely RepublicanMaryland — no Senate race in 2026Michigan — Toss-UpMississippi — Lean RepublicanMontana — Likely RepublicanNew Hampshire — Likely DemocraticNew York — no Senate race in 2026Ohio — Toss-UpOregon — Solid DemocraticTennessee — Solid RepublicanUtah — no Senate race in 2026Virginia — Likely DemocraticWashington — no Senate race in 2026Wisconsin — no Senate race in 2026Nebraska — Toss-UpSouth Carolina — Lean RepublicanIdaho — Solid RepublicanNevada — no Senate race in 2026Vermont — no Senate race in 2026Louisiana — Lean RepublicanRhode Island — Solid Democratic
Solid DLikely DLean DToss-UpLean RLikely RSolid RNo Senate race in 2026

Senate · Ohio

Toss-Up

DEM  Sherrod Brown47.1%

REP  Jon Husted44.7%

Democrats lead by 2.4 pts

Special election. Outside spending has passed $200M — one of the most expensive Senate races in the country.

Polls close: 7:30 PM ET
Percentages are the latest polling average, not counted votes.

What time do polls close on Election Day?

Results start arriving the moment the first polls close — 6:00 PM Eastern in Indiana and Kentucky — and the story of the night unfolds wave by wave until Alaska finishes at 1:00 AM. All times Eastern, Tuesday November 3, 2026.

6:00 PM ETIndiana & Kentucky (Eastern-time parts)
7:00 PM ETGeorgia, Florida (most), South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, New Hampshire (most towns)
7:30 PM ETNorth Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
8:00 PM ETPennsylvania, Michigan (most), Texas (most), Florida Panhandle, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Illinois, Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Kansas (most), South Dakota (east)
8:30 PM ETArkansas
9:00 PM ETNew York, Arizona, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Michigan (Upper Peninsula), Texas (El Paso), South Dakota (west), Wyoming, Kansas (west)
10:00 PM ETNevada, Montana, Utah, Idaho (south)
11:00 PM ETCalifornia, Washington, Oregon, Idaho (north)
12:00 AM ETHawaii, Alaska (most)
1:00 AM ETAlaska's Aleutian Islands

How control of Congress will be decided

Democrats flip the Senate if they net two seats. Their map runs through the eight toss-ups above — and starts with a genuine shot in places Democrats rarely win: polling averages currently have them ahead in Ohio, Texas and Kansas, all states Donald Trump carried comfortably in 2024. Republicans, defending 22 of the 35 seats, need to hold at least six of the eight toss-ups to be sure of keeping the chamber.

The House is a different fight: 435 separate district races, with the outcome likely decided by the roughly four dozen districts forecasters rate competitive. Our newsroom explains the stakes race by race — start with the 2026 midterms, explained and follow the daily developments in RoboVez politics coverage.

On election night this board switches from outlook to results: states will be coloured as races are called by the Associated Press, with vote percentages and reporting progress per race, and this page will carry the time of the last update at the top.

Questions, answered

What time do polls close in my state?

Find your state in the closing-times table above — all times are Eastern. Most states close at 7 or 8 PM local time; if you are in line when polls close, you can still vote in every state.

When will we know who won the Senate?

Possibly late on election night, possibly days later. If the toss-ups break one way early — Ohio and North Carolina close at 7:30 PM ET — control could be clear by midnight. Close races in Alaska (ranked-choice) and any state heading to a recount will take longer.

Are these numbers election results?

Not yet. Until polls close on November 3 this board shows the pre-election outlook: the latest polling averages and forecaster ratings from the sources listed below. On election night it switches to counted votes.

Why do some states have no colour?

Only 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election in 2026 (senators serve six-year terms). States shown dark have no Senate race this year — though all of them still vote for the House and, in many, for governor.

Methodology & sources: this outlook is built from published polling averages and forecaster ratings — no RoboVez estimate is mixed in. Seat counts assume every race rated Lean or better holds for the leading party; Toss-Up seats are shown separately. RealClearPolling averages and Cook Political Report ratings (via Action Network & RotoWire, Oct 26, 2026); Politix+ polling averages (Oct 26, 2026); Vote-Scope Senate forecast (Oct 25, 2026). Poll-closing times: state election rules compiled by The Green Papers and Ballotpedia. Updated October 26, 2026. Figures will be replaced by Associated Press race calls and counted votes on election night.