Democrats Lead by 8 Points as 43 Million Vote Early in Midterms

What happened

With three days to go before the midterm elections, Democrats lead Republicans by 8.2 percentage points in the national congressional ballot average, according to RealClearPolling. Democrats stand at 51.4 percent to the Republicans' 43.2 percent.

A separate Economist/YouGov survey released on Thursday found 44 percent of registered voters expect Democrats to control the House after the election, against 31 percent who expect Republicans to keep it. Expectations for the Senate were far closer: 39 percent expect a Democratic majority, 36 percent a Republican one.

Meanwhile, early voting is running well ahead of 2022. An Associated Press analysis released on Friday counted [more than 43 million ballots already cast](/article/more-than-43-million-ballots-cast-midterm-early-voting-surge), in person or by mail, five days before Election Day. That is nearly 10 million more than at the same point before the last midterms, with some of the biggest jumps in states with competitive Senate races.

In Texas, more than 6.3 million people had voted early as of Wednesday, up 50 percent from 4.2 million at the same point in 2022. In Georgia, more than 2.5 million ballots had been cast by Friday morning, already passing the 2.3 million recorded across the whole early-voting period in 2022. Early voting also rose by more than 30 percent on the same comparison in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas.

President Donald Trump, meanwhile, reversed his decision to cancel two weekend rallies in Kansas and Iowa. The White House confirmed both events will go ahead on Sunday, less than a day after they were scrapped in favour of nearly 20 telephone campaign events. Trump campaigned in Florida on Friday, where Republicans are defending Senate and gubernatorial seats, telling the crowd: "You got to vote. Bad things happen when you get too confident."

Why it matters

The national ballot lead and the early-vote surge point in the same direction: an electorate turning out in unusual numbers for a midterm. But the two chambers tell different stories. Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia told Al Jazeera that a large Democratic lead in House generic-ballot polling suggests "the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats," while the Senate "is much more up in the air."

That split is why the final weekend matters so much. Trump is scheduled to hold back-to-back rallies in Iowa on Sunday, supporting Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, then in Kansas, campaigning with Senator Roger Marshall. An Emerson College poll has Marshall's Democratic challenger, megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton, ahead 49 percent to 45 percent in traditionally Republican Kansas.

Elsewhere, the campaigns are fighting over the same handful of races that will decide Senate control. Alaska, one of seven key toss-ups, is complicated by a dispute over [two candidates named Dan Sullivan](/article/alaska-governor-orders-probe-two-dan-sullivans), which has drawn legal action from the Department of Justice. In Texas, Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton cancelled an event in El Paso to concentrate on Harris County, the state's most populous county, while Democrat James Talarico focused his final efforts on Houston.

One caution runs through all of it: early turnout figures do not show which candidates voters chose. A record early vote is a measure of enthusiasm, not of outcome.

What it means for the US

If the polls hold, the House flips and the second half of Trump's term is governed by divided power. That would change what Washington can pass: spending bills, tax changes and confirmations would all need Democratic votes in the House, and oversight investigations would gain a majority behind them.

For voters, the stakes are closer to home. The Senate races in Kansas, Alaska and Texas will decide whether Republicans keep their majority in the upper chamber, and with it control of judicial and executive confirmations. Early-voting rules, mail-ballot deadlines and polling-place hours now vary sharply by state, so the surge in early ballots also reflects how many Americans are voting before Election Day rather than on it.

What happens next

Trump's Sunday rallies in Iowa and Kansas headline the final weekend, with Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear joining Ohio governor candidate Amy Acton, and Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola rallying in Bethel. Republican candidate Mike Rogers is also expected to campaign with House Speaker Mike Johnson.

Election Day is Tuesday. Results in the seven toss-up Senate races will settle the Senate question first; the House picture should follow as the national count firms up.