What happened
One day before the midterm elections, Democratic leaders closed ranks around Abdul El-Sayed, their Senate nominee in Michigan, after Representative Haley Stevens [endorsed his Republican rival](/article/democrat-stevens-backs-republican-rogers-michigan-senate-race). Stevens, who lost Michigan's Democratic Senate primary to El-Sayed in August, announced her support for Republican Mike Rogers on Sunday.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer answered with a post on X. He called Stevens's endorsement a "despicable betrayal" and said Senate Democrats were united behind El-Sayed. He said El-Sayed would fight for the economic interests of working families in Michigan, while describing Rogers as a tool of Donald Trump and billionaire donors.
Michigan Democratic Party chairman Curtis Hertel told CNN that Stevens does not speak for the larger community. The advocacy group Michigan Jews for Democracy also backed El-Sayed and rejected what it called an attempt to divide the community two days before the election. Trump, speaking at a rally in Iowa on Sunday, celebrated the endorsement and said he would love it if Stevens joined the Republican Party.
The Michigan race is one of the most closely watched of the midterms. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are on the ballot on Tuesday, along with governor races in 36 states. Democrats hope to flip both chambers of Congress, which Republicans currently control.
Why it matters
The split exposed a fault line inside the Democratic Party in the final hours of the campaign. Stevens and El-Sayed have clashed for weeks over US support for Israel. El-Sayed has opposed military support for Israel and argued that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushed the US into the war with Iran. Stevens has accused El-Sayed of antisemitism over his criticism of Israeli actions in Gaza.
El-Sayed has faced Islamophobic attacks during the campaign, and Democratic leaders framed their response as a defense of their nominee. His campaign reportedly saw a fundraising surge after Stevens crossed party lines. El-Sayed himself warned voters that a vote for Rogers would amount to a vote for Trump.
The open question is whether Stevens's move shifts any votes. It could persuade some of her supporters to back Rogers, or it could discourage them from voting at all. Polling cited by Reuters suggested El-Sayed had largely consolidated Democratic support, but early turnout figures say nothing about who voters actually chose.
What it means for the US
Control of the Senate may hinge on races like Michigan's. Alaska's Senate race is one of seven toss-up contests expected to decide whether Republicans keep their majority. A federal judge has thrown out a Trump administration lawsuit that sought to block Alaska from certifying a loss by Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. The administration had argued that a rival candidate with the same name could change the outcome. Sullivan, a Trump ally, told CNN on Sunday that he would accept the election results.
The stakes for voters are practical. The cost-of-living crisis, worsened by the US-Israel war on Iran, has become one of the central issues of this election. Which party controls Congress will shape tax, spending, and foreign policy decisions for the next two years, including continued US support for Israel and the handling of the Iran conflict.
What happens next
Voters go to the polls on Tuesday. More than 54.5 million Americans had already [voted early](/article/more-than-43-million-ballots-cast-midterm-early-voting-surge) as of 10 a.m. Eastern time on Sunday, according to a University of Florida analysis. That total included 30 million in-person votes and 24 million mail-in ballots, up from 46 million early votes at a comparable point in 2022.
Early voting surged in several battleground states. Texas alone recorded more than 7.7 million early votes. South Carolina, where Trump won by nearly 18 percentage points in 2024, saw early voting jump 83 percent compared with the same point in 2022, according to an Associated Press polling analysis. Kansas, Michigan, and Maine also saw surges.
Results in the closest Senate races may take time to settle, and early turnout alone will not predict them.
